White Christmas Odds by City
The chance of at least 1 inch of snow on the ground on Christmas morning in 401 US cities, from NOAA weather station records for 1991–2020.
City or ZIP code only, no street address. We show the nearest NOAA stations with a long snow-depth record.
Across 401 US cities with long NOAA records, the odds of at least 1 inch of snow on the ground on Christmas morning (1991–2020) run from 97% in Duluth, MN to 0% in 154 cities. Minneapolis 80%, Buffalo 67%, Denver 40%, Chicago 33%, New York 7%.
Christmas 2025: 23 of the 297 stations that reported had 1 inch or more of snow on the ground.
Each dot is one NOAA weather station. Click a dot for the city's page.
Best odds of a white Christmas
- Duluth, MN: 97% (29 of 30 Christmases with data, 1991–2020)
- Bozeman, MT: 97% (29 of 30 Christmases with data, 1991–2020)
- Rochester, MN: 87% (26 of 30 Christmases with data, 1991–2020)
- Grand Forks, ND: 83% (24 of 29 Christmases with data, 1991–2020)
- Tooele, UT: 83% (24 of 29 Christmases with data, 1991–2020)
- Minot, ND: 82% (18 of 22 Christmases with data, 1991–2020)
- Sandy, UT: 81% (22 of 27 Christmases with data, 1991–2020)
- Eau Claire, WI: 81% (21 of 26 Christmases with data, 1991–2020)
- Minneapolis, MN: 80% (24 of 30 Christmases with data, 1991–2020)
- Brooklyn Park, MN: 79% (23 of 29 Christmases with data, 1991–2020)
White Christmas odds in the largest cities
| City | Odds | White Christmases | Last white Christmas |
|---|---|---|---|
| New York, NY | 7% | 2 of 30 | 2009 |
| Los Angeles, CA | 0% | 0 of 29 | none since 1950 |
| Chicago, IL | 33% | 10 of 30 | 2022 |
| Houston, TX | 0% | 0 of 20 | none since 1950 |
| Phoenix, AZ | 0% | 0 of 29 | none since 1950 |
| Philadelphia, PA | 10% | 3 of 30 | 2009 |
| San Antonio, TX | 0% | 0 of 26 | none since 1950 |
| Dallas, TX | 0% | 0 of 23 | none since 1950 |
| Fort Worth, TX | 8% | 2 of 26 | 2012 |
| Austin, TX | 0% | 0 of 30 | none since 1950 |
| Charlotte, NC | 0% | 0 of 30 | none since 1950 |
| Columbus, OH | 27% | 8 of 30 | 2022 |
| Indianapolis, IN | 23% | 7 of 30 | 2022 |
| Seattle, WA | 5% | 1 of 20 | 2008 |
| Denver, CO | 40% | 12 of 30 | 2022 |
White Christmas odds by state
Alabama Arizona Arkansas California Colorado Connecticut Delaware District of Columbia Florida Georgia Idaho Illinois Indiana Iowa Kansas Kentucky Louisiana Maine Maryland Massachusetts Michigan Minnesota Mississippi Missouri Montana Nebraska Nevada New Hampshire New Jersey New Mexico New York North Carolina North Dakota Ohio Oklahoma Oregon Pennsylvania Rhode Island South Carolina South Dakota Tennessee Texas Utah Vermont Virginia Washington West Virginia Wisconsin Wyoming
Numbers you can quote
- Duluth, MN has had at least 1 inch of snow on the ground on 29 of 30 Christmases with data from 1991 to 2020 (97%), the best odds of the 401 US cities we checked, tied with Bozeman, MT.
- Minneapolis, MN: a white Christmas in 24 of 30 years, 80% (1991–2020, NOAA station USW00014922).
- Buffalo, NY: a white Christmas in 20 of 30 years, 67% (1991–2020, NOAA station USW00014733).
- Denver, CO: a white Christmas in 12 of 30 years, 40% (1991–2020, NOAA station USW00023062).
- Chicago, IL: a white Christmas in 10 of 30 years, 33% (1991–2020, NOAA station USC00111577).
- New York, NY: a white Christmas in 2 of 30 years, 7% (1991–2020, NOAA station USW00014732).
- 52 of 401 cities (13%) have better-than-even odds; 154 had no white Christmas at all from 1991 to 2020.
- Christmas 2025: 23 of 297 reporting stations had 1 inch or more of snow on the ground.
- At the 314 stations with 20+ years in both periods, the average odds were 24% for 1961–1990 and 20% for 1991–2020; odds fell at 150 stations and rose at 56.
Free to quote with credit to National Storms and NOAA NCEI. Every city page has its year-by-year record and an embeddable card. Reporters: press page.
How we count
A white Christmas, by NOAA's definition, is at least 1 inch of snow on the ground on the morning of December 25. It doesn't matter when the snow fell. For each city we use one NOAA weather station: the long-record station that our weather history pages use for that city (usually the main airport or a long-running cooperative station). Some of those stations went years without reporting snow depth, so where one is missing more than 3 of the 30 Christmases we use whichever nearby station (within 15 miles and 400 feet of elevation, so no mountain tops) has the most. We read the station's snow depth for December 25 of every year from GHCN-Daily and count the years with 1 inch or more.
The odds are the share of Christmases from 1991 through 2020 (NOAA's current 30-year “normals” period) with 1 inch or more, out of the years the station reported a depth. A station is listed only if it has 20 or more of those 30 years; every table shows how many years each station has. NOAA's own map smooths station values with a statistical model, so its figure for a place can differ from our direct count by a few points. Snow depth varies a lot over short distances, by elevation and in lake-effect belts; the station is a guide to your area, not a measurement at your house. Lower 48 states and Washington, DC only. Data through Christmas 2025.
Sources
NOAA National Centers for Environmental Information (NCEI), Global Historical Climatology Network – Daily (GHCN-Daily), element SNWD (snow depth, observed once a day, usually in the morning), quality-flagged values removed. Each city's page names its station. Definition: NOAA's, 1 inch or more of snow on the ground on December 25, as on NOAA's white Christmas map at Climate.gov. These are our own counts from NOAA's public data; NOAA has not reviewed them.